Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Quiz Compettition Participation - A Boon some time back , now a Bane ?

Quest for Universal Intelligence Zanith ( QUIZ ) Compettition is an event which finds a place in most socio cultural gatherings. Our Company's annual compettition is not an exception to this. In my younger days , Sidhartha Basu used to dazzle all of us with his Quiz Time programs ( Quiz time 86 with pretty Radha seth and Quiz time 88 with another pretty girl Shibani ). He rose to become an Iconic figure in the late 80s . Later,Bhaskar Bhatacharjee was also popular in the late 80s. In One event (Microsoft Teched 2001 -Visual basic birth day bash ) , i happen to get a chance to participate in a quiz compettition where Sidhartha Basu was the Quiz master. Our team came fourth in the compettition.

IMHO,Quiz compettition was a good thing when knowledge gathering was an expensive operation. Now , The Wikipedia giving all Encyclopedias run for their money and the advent of new specialized search engines, one can dig up facts about anything ,in a matter of seconds. One Problem i have seen in all "Quiz whiz kids" is they get too much pat on the back very early and will be considered as little "Genius". The real world is so messy that most of them are the store house of factual knowledge which has got little to do with their mainline of activity. The bloated Ego generated through winning some compettitions in the early days works as an impediment to their progress in real life. The Economics of Quiz compettition is a classical case of Diminishing returns.

Having Said all this thing , i am participating in the Quiz compettition conducted in our company. I suspect there is wisdom in particpating in some events where one can see people in a self created "mess".

Monday, May 25, 2009

Action and it's Outcome

I was discussing about the development of Trivandrum City with my colleagues. I am always of the view that , Economic Growth arises because of the Supply's insatiable appettite to keep up with the Demand or Generated Demand. Another source of Growth is the young people's urge to rewrite the rules of the old. There are people who advocate for active development of the Trivandrum City. The Love for one's city can turn into a disaster, if we attract "outsiders" in large numbers. This might suit a set of people who are ready to exploit this sudden influx of outsiders. My maxim is "if u cannot exploit the outcome of Action, Do not act !". if people are not careful , they will bring infrastructure collapse.

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Financial Accounting in 60 minutes

I am preparing a set of slides to teach the essential aspects of Financial Accounting in sixty minutes. This rather ambitious plan has worked with Programmers some time back. People who are trained in various branches of Engineering has for some reason find Accounting a hard topic to crack. Those of who (engineers ) managed to crack it , blah blah about their achievement. As a reaction against one such person , i delivered an ex-tempore crash course to the people in a particular company. Since most of them had attempted to learn it themselves , the job was pretty easy for me.
The Philosophy is as follows. Every discipline has got two dominant forces in it. One is Analytical aspects of the subject and other the procedural aspect. The Procedural aspects can only be learned through trial and error ( Experience - in glorified terms ). The Analytical aspects of the subject (Financial accounting ) is very easy to teach any one.

Another problem is people confuse between mechanisms and policy. The knowledge of essential mechansims is what a Computer programmer requires to write a Financial accounting software. The Policy should be left to the practitioners of the profession.

In Financial accounting system , the four actors are Assets , Liabilities ( including Capital - [ Business owes it to the partners as per business entity concept ] ) , Incomes and Expenses.
With this information in mind let us examine some essential mechanisms of Accounting,

A) The business entity concept - The Business and Business man are two seperate entities. The hardest part to digest for most people
B) We are following Double entry Book keeping system. For every transaction there is a Debit and a Credit. Figuring it out is little messy in the classical accounting text book. I chip in here with a simplified technique which gives accurate result.
C) Once u figure it out , we need to write to a journal. Journal can be considered as a daily log book.
D) Once u have entered the stuff in Journal, we need to transfer the entries to respective Accounts. This book is called a Ledger. In the Ledger book, Every account will have a page (or two) allocated.
E) In every accounting book, the stuff has to be balanced. So , u get a debit balance ( more debit than credit ) or Credit balance ( more credit than debit ) depending upon the account. Sales will always show a Credit balance. Cash should show a debit balance etc.
F) In manual accounting , the total debit and total sales will be summed to determine whether they are equal. They should be equal. This is called Trial balance. Other than inspection purpose,Trial balance do not play much role in computerized accounting.
G) The items related to Expenses and Income should be transfered to P&L A/c or income statement.
H) While trying to balance the debit and the credit in P&L A/c, u get the Net Profit of the concern.
I) The Net profit has to be transered to Balance sheet. Balance sheet shows what the business owns (Assets ) and what it owes (Liabilities + Partner's Capital [Equity ] ).

The above steps essentially captures the analytical aspects of Financial accounting. The rest are details.

Equity Premium - a new term encountered

Equity Premium is a term to denote the phenomena where Stocks have outperformed Bonds on the present value scale in most of the world's leading economies. In US , it is 4% and Sweden ranks first in the list followed by Australia. Also read about Equity Premium Puzzle.

Probability Theory and Mahabharatha

The Theory of Probability owes it origin to French Gambler Chevalier de Mere. He posed a problem to Blaise Pascal and Pierre De Fermat. The correspondence between two mathematicians to solve the problem led to the birth of the science of Probability. I was watching Peter Schillers lecture on Financial markets and he mentions about attempt by Ian hacking to trace the reference of Probability in the Western world before 17th century. He could not find it anywhere and only place where the word probable is used by Shakespere to depict a different situation. Prof. Schiller mentions the tale of Rituparna and Nala from Mahabharath as the place where mention to process akin to Sampling (thus Probability ) is available. The transcript and the video ( 2:39 to 10:11 ) of the lecture is available online for free. I first come to know the story of Rituparna when i was a manager for a Animation division of a company. Based on the description which i heard back then , i thought Rituparna was Clairvoyant or so.

Austrian Economics - a nice video

During the early part of the 20th century, Vienna used to be the center of western intellectual innovation. One School of thought which wields influence to this day is Austrian Economics. The foremost economist of this school of thought was Ludwig von mises.I happen to find a video which is nice watch to understand the philosophical foundations of this school of thought.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Eurabia - a reality in 2030

Eurabia is a term coined by an Author to portray the ground realities in most European nations. In most of the countries where Islam has got a sizeable presence , there is unrest from islamist or people who hold the opposite view. Citing religious persecution , followers of Islam has managed to get citizenship in most of the European nations. Being a conservative bunch,these people has started questioning the beliefs and practices of natives in resepective countries. Things like Honour killing , Hijab , Anti-gay killing etc is going on in countries like Netherlands , Scandinavia , France and spain to name a few. This has created an uneasy atmosphere in most european countries. The people are more worried about this because the left leaning liberals are
allowing the creeping of shariat law into their constituitions in the name of multi culturalism. The book "America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It" covers some possible scenarios in the europe.

Bounded Rationality

We human beings take great pride in us being rational animals. Some of the Economic theories and models make an assumption that Humans will be rational in their Choice. But,in practice , because of the Cognitive limitations of humans , we cannot process all the information available to take descisions. Every Decision we take is a Gamble. There is bound to the extent of rationality we can possess. Situations and models which tend to take Bounded rationality into the consideration tends to be a much better fit to the reality than which does not take that into the consideration. The Subject of Behavioral finance is a good example where we take Bounded rationality very seriously.

Game Theory And Economics

The Mathematical Theory of Games owes it origin to the legendary Hungarian born German American mathematician John Von Nuemann and Austrian Economist Oskar Morgenstien. They
published their land mark book "Theory of Games and Economic Behavior" in 1944. Most of the non technical books on Game theory which i have come across has always been written by the Economists.

The Economics deals with the scenarios where large number of unrelated players interact in exchange of goods and services through markets. if related people get into these exchanges things are more complicated than what can be captured in an Economic model. The rational choice paradigm , Equilibrium related stuff and related ideas does not seem to work in such areas. The Game theory provides a framework for a thoery of Economic and Strategic behavior where people interact directly rather than through market.

This is an issue which has perplexed me a lot in the past. Today , when i was reading a book written by Roger A. Mcain on Game Theory (Game Theory - A non technical introduction to Analysis of Strategy),i came to know about the reason behind the tight bondage between Economics and Game theory.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Ten Day MBA - intro part of Marketing

Marketing comes first in any Business. It is more of a practitioners art and all the MBA courses try to give a conceptual framework and vocabulary to take up marketing challenges. Students engage in lot of role playing in the classes to come up with a "winning" marketing plan.

Personally , in the companies i have worked most people have got confusion about the difference between Marketing and Sales. Marketing people are mostly specialized in creating Brand Awareness , Positioning the Brand etc... and Sales people are mostly concerned about Closing the orders.

There is mention about the marketing guru , Philip Kotler and his marketing centric view of the world in the opening paragraph.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Ten Day MBA - Comments on the Introduction

The rationale of the Book is clearly spelled out by the author in this section. He was going through the notes he had taken down during the tenure as a B School student. To his surprise , he found that most of the important topics can be taught very easily. He has managed to compress it into a Book. The Author also claims that the earlier incarnation of the book is even used to organize Executive mini MBA courses around this book.

The most important sentence in the book is , " Unfortunately , this book cannot provide you with the friendships and life long business contacts u can develop at an elite B School." . The whole point of enrolling in a top B-school is to get a place in the alumni network and get good contacts with people who matters some years down the line.

He lists the nine most important subjects which is important in any B-school degree

Marketing
Ethics
Accounting
Organization behavior
Quantitative Analysis
Finance
Economics
Operations
Strategy

With an additional chapter on potpourri of things form the core essence of the book.The Synthesis of above knowledge makes the education of a management graduate a powerful force in the corporate world.The introduction also talks about the rankings of top business schools in Americas , Europe and Singapore. These things are not relevant to the content of the book.

Ten Day MBA - A book which is worth an investment

"Ten DAY MBA" by Steven Silbiger is a book which is many times worthy than the money u need to purchase it. I have skimmed through the book a year back, around the time i purchased it. Now , i have decided to study it.

The book will help you to decide what to search for. Now that Youtube is available , we can get videos on most of the concepts described in the book. Added Bonanza is some of the Business
Schools put their video lectures online for free.

This book can be useful as guide to organize study forums on management as well.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Self Help Programs - A problem

Currently, i am reading heavily on Philosophy , Psychology and Universal Darwinism. While introspecting the relevance of the material on an individual , i suspect that there is a endemic problem in the self help programs and the books available. Most of these books set their context
in the Social aspects of life. Since the events in life are random in nature ( now especially so ) ,
Only thing which we can do is to better our intellectual and physical capacity. The outcome of our action is unpredictable even in the naivest of the situation.

In retrospect , we always give credit to things based on our subjective biases. There is a predictable pattern (in INDIA ) which at the risk of generalization are as follows ,

"When Congress party wins election , it is Sonia Factor .. When it looses Minorities did not vote"
"When a Muslim guy achieves laurels , he gives credit to ALLAH.. !!", what about when he fails ?
"Among Christians , Jesus is responsible for all good things ...",what about things which turned out to be bad ?
Others give credit to their Parents , their private Gods, Guru bani and u name what.

The above biases are for Social consumption.

So Self Help Programs , by appealing to society are just like religions around which institutions can be built. IMHO , only thing we can do is improve the SELF by study , introspection, debates, listening to others ,participating in events etc...

IPHONE Chess Program

One of my friend has got a IPHONE which contains a nifty program which plays chess. I played two games with it . The Program , plays better move than most humans i have met. In under 35 moves in both cases , the program was having an advantage and it was just a matter of time for it to beat me. May be the program will be having an ELO rating of 2400 and my ELO rating will be around 1700 or so. Only way to have a fighting chance with the program is to systematically study good chess openings and slowly raise the level of Game. At least , that program will help u to raise the level of the game.

Successful Defence of The Chess Title in the Company

Yesterday , i played the finals of the annual Chess tournament in our Company. Being the Defending Champion , i was bit nervous. Even though , i advocated for a rapid match, the oppenent insisted that we play the longer version of the game. In Grand Master level chess, each player has to make 40 moves in the allotted two hours. So , The total duration of the match can go upto four hours. My suggestion was to keep it 40 moves per hour.The Opponent was a good player who plays on the board really well. Usually, my biggest advantage is the vast repotaire of openings which i know. He started with White and had initiative in the first part of the match. At one crucial juncture , he fell into a trap which was set up by me unintentionally !!. Then within four moves , he resigned. Chess is physically demanding compared to other games.

Monday, May 11, 2009

A nice series of videos and a good book

I was searching some video lectures on Philosophy and stumbled upon a series of lectures hosted by Alain De Botton. I watched Video #1 on Socrates and Video #2
on Epicurus. The Videos were of good quality and was thought provoking as well.
To purchase a book ordered some time back , i went to Modern Book center today.
To my surprise , i found a book written by Alain De Botton there. The title of the book is The Consolations of Philosophy. The videos portray the thinking of Six philosophers chronicled in the book.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2808374571100926940&q=source%3A005572982656363337331&hl=en

Sunday, May 10, 2009

A Productive weekend

Since i was planning to attend a marriage at kallambalam, during the weekend i stayed in Kollam at my in-law's place. The stuff i read (in part ) include

Language Instinct By Steven Pinker
Theory of Evolution by John Maynard Smith
What Philosophy IS by Havi Carel and David Gamez
The Selfish Gene by Richard Dawkins

The biggest take away from Pinker's book is "Language is a Discrete Combinatorial System". Pinker argues that Language capacity is innate in Animals. Any Person who is interested in text processing will appreciate the coverage of Chomskian Linugistics in the book. One should study this book , than try to read it.

Theory of evolution is a book which talks about Evolution in Darwinian terms. There is good coverage of Mendelian Genetics, Central Dogma of Genetics and Evolution at the Genetic level.

Regarding The selfish gene,I re-read sections of Evolutionarily Stable Strategies ( ESS ),Family planning and Nice guys finish first . In Game Theoretic Parlance , ESS is called Nash Equilibrium.

Friday, May 08, 2009

Mathematical Models in finance

In finance there are three kind of Models
A) Discrete Time Single Period model
Eg :- FV = PV*(1+r)^n
B) Discrete Time Multi Period Model
Eg:- FV = PV*(1+r/s)^(s*n)
C) Continous Time Model
Eg:- FV = PV*exp(r*n);

The First model is for conceptual understanding of the stuff. The second one is useful in practice for a practicing banker or financier. Third one is used by Academicians and Quantitative Analysts to have a nice closed form solutions for the Equations. The Lure of Physics is indeed strong among Quants.

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Philosophy and Computer Programming

I was reading a book ,"What Philosophy IS" while travelling back to my home town the other day. Half way through the journey , i picked up a conversation with a guy who is also a computer programmer like me. Being considerably young , he was more interested in technology and tools.
After a while , he asked me a question , "what is the relevance of Philosophy in Computer Programming ? "
He, being a person who is "procedural" in nature , i understood that an abstract explanation would reach a deaf ear. Let me scribble the essence of my pitch here.

Philosophy is too broad a term to be defined and there are different philosophical schools of thought. Rater than trying to define what is philsophy , i explained how it has helped me in Computer Programming. The most famous story is that of Bertrand Russel and David Hilbert in their quest to give a Logical foundation to mathematics. That attempt failed to achieve 100% success rate. They failed at a particular construct called Recursively Enumerable set. The celebrated Barber Paradox captures the essence of the problem which Russel encountered.
The intellectual ancestory of all programming languages can be traced back to this attempt. The attempt by Alonzo Church and Alan Turing to define a mechanichal verifier of algorithm's led to the invention of Turing Machine and Lambda Calculus. I also explained the gist of presentation which i took at the BarCamp Kerala 3 event held at Cochin university of Science and Technology.
Another book which explains the issue i have mentioned here is "Impossibility : The Science of Limits and the Limits of Science". Roger Penrose's book Emperor's new Mind and the Shadows of the Mind is also a good read on the Limits of Algorithmic computation. Without a good background in Philosophy, it is hard to appreciate certain issues in computation.

The foundation of western science is laid down by two schools of philosophical thought. One school of thought was inspired by the call of Rene Descartes to derive everything from Logical reasoning. The Other was by Francis Bacon's call to do experiments to understand nature's law.
There has been a silent battle in most intellectual endeavour between followers of Cartesian
and Baconian world view.

Even a social science like Economics has got connections with the intellectual climate of the respective era. The Newtonian deterministic universe has influenced the mathematization on economics and it has not updated to take care of the Einstien's relitivistic world. Now a new discipline by the name Complexity economics is taking shape to take care of this.

Philosophy will shape our intellectual outlook by giving the context in which certain things are said by wise men of the time. Especially , when we learn about Cognition , Creativity and other related problems by creating computational model , we need to have good foundations in Philosophy.

Charles Darwin and his theory of evolution has shaped the way human being thinks. There are computer programming models based on Darwinian Evolutionary framework. Genetic Algorithms and Genetic Programming are two approach which we follow to make certain problems tractable.

To sum up , to understand the intellectual ancestory of our current world view , it is good to know Philosophical foundations of respective things.

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Game theory to analyze family life ?

I have always suspected that family is a cradle for all political games played in the real world. As an instituition , i appreciate the benifit of family system. The family system is a good insurance mechanism , emotional shock absorber , child rearing infrastructure etc.. But, family system has got lot of problems too (any coin has got two sides )

Pls. watch this video on game theory @
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdJUGM2mi9I&feature=related

The section starts from 3:40 onwards

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

The Tale of a Wicket Keeper

Keeping Wickets is a stressful job in the game of Cricket. Since every team needs only one wicket keeper , the compettition is high. Dinesh Karthik is a good wicket keeper/batsman from Chennai. Arrival of Mahender Singh Dhoni nearly screwed his career. IMHO , Karthik was a better wicket keeper. To give due credit to Karthik , he re-invented himself as a batsman and found his way into the Indian team.

I do not spend much money to buy fancy things for my son. He is now seven years old and pesters my wife , grand mother and my brother to get what he wants. The other day , my wife asked why i do not spend much for him. if our kids get all the convenience and suddenly due to some unforseen reason , if we cannot support them , it can have emotional consequences for them. I told the tragic story (which might be having a happy ending ) of Sadanand Vishwanath to my wife. He was born to a family which was filthy rich. When during the time of Emergency their family business was nationalized by Indira Gandhi ,the family lost all the fortune and it was a great struggle for young Sadanand. He stayed in a room in the chinna swamy stadium in bangalore and used to play a lot of cricket. For Syed Kirmani , he was kept away from the team for a considerable amount of time and (finally) he got a chance to wear the cap for india. From 1985 to 1988 , he played for india. . The times he played were the golden era of india cricket after the 1983 world cup triumph. His father , mother passed away in quick succession and had a finger injury. After that he suddenly vanished from the scene

Later, i happen to read about his true story in a men's magazine. Living in anonymity in middle east for four years , he came back to india to start a training academy for youngsters in cricket. Finally , after a benifit match he could get some financial stability. Now , he is in the elite panel of umpires. When i explained the tragic story of Sadanand , my eyes had tears filled in.

Sadanand Vishwanath still lives in the mind and hearts of cricket lovers of those era.

A chess match and it's aftermath

In our company , the annual compettition in various events are going on. Being the defending champion in Chess , i (was forced to enroll ) for the tournament. Last time , there were 32 particpants and this time only eight have participated. My first match was a marathon event in which i barely managed to hold on. In the second match , the opponent was considerably stronger than the first and he made a daring attack on my position.I was shaky with one pawn down and a positional advantage for him. Had he forced an exchange of pieces,it was just a matter of time before i loose. However , i forced him to do a tactical blunder and won the game by a whisker.

While the match was going on he protested that since i have touched a piece , i should play a legal move with that piece. In local tournaments i have played , the rule is that u should not take the hands from the piece , if u want to retract a move. But in the end , after searching google i understood that he had a case there. Guys around me have started taking a dig at me for that.

Monday, May 04, 2009

Civil Services Examination - First three toppers are Women

I am generally neutral in the debate about gender superiority. For doing ordinary jobs , men in general has got some advantage because of the physique and social conditions. As we move up in the value chain , there is nothing to differentiate between the genders. I have noticed that Women in general can stay focused in achieving what they want. Social restrictions which they have some time favours them a lot in certain areas. Figures do not prove that Women in general are in any way inferior to men when they take political leadership , Executive postions in companies and even in science. The post was inspired by
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/women-take-top-three-ranks-in-civil-service-exam/91760-3.html

I think the whole gender debate is statistical in nature . Men get more opportunity than women because of social conditions. The debate turns ugly when certain feminists try to interpret equality with emulating men in all respects. Take the case of the mangalore pub incident which happened some time back. Mrs. Renuka chaudhury was for some obnoxious reasons ( one is political ) was talking about Pab Bharao andholan etc..

When i was travelling to my native place by train, one fellow gave a convincing reasons for why women in general should not go to a pub ...in his words
"if a man gets drunk and collapses , maximum he looses is whatever is in his pockets. But for a women she can loose ............. "

So , in the end i advocate equality in constructive things , there are certain ocassions where gender equality can be fatal.

A Dangerous Message - Was it accidental ?

In the BarCamp 5 event held @ Technopark TVM , One of the presenter who orchestrated a session by the name , "Development - What they did not teach u at College ?" gave a dangerous message to the college students who assembled there. The crux of the message was dropping out of college has not in any way affected him in his professional life. IMHO , that is an OUTLIER EVENT. The College educational system has been designed to churn out large number of individuals who might be able to do something worthwhile in life. The system is designed for the governing system of the country. Excellence at the individual level is one of the (lesser) peripheral aims of the system. This system has helped millions of average and below average individuals to succeed. All men ( no gender bias intented ) are not equally good in their cognitive abilities. The reasons can be genetic or enivornmental. For a guy or gal from a lower middle class background , the college education system is the only deterministic (predictable ) system which can help to increase their odds for success in life. The sole aim of engineering and other professional courses is to get individuals who might be having some system thinking. When one student writes 60 odd assignments to get an engineering degree , it is hoped that something will enter in the cavity between his ears. The summary of my message is , College education system with it's own flaws , (still ) is a must for all.

I think reading a book by the title , Fooled by Randomness is a good read for all barcamp participants. We human beings are fallible in our analysis of the past . We need to process some 2,00,000 variables in our life, to decide whether we will be successful in any endeavour (one undertakes). Our cognitive abilities are limited to analyze what has enabled us to succeed in some stuff. In analyzing something in retrospect , we suffer from Hindsight bias. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky has even got nobel prize (in Economics) for studying human bias and fallacies. Try to read this book , u will understand my message. Once u have finished reading it , Pls. try to read the same author's Black Swan. The presenter was a success despite dropping out of college does not prove that all drop outs succeed. I know that the presenter did not mean to convey that all drop outs are successful.

Coming back to the matter of College education , to work in certain areas like Randomized Algorithms , Protocol validation software , Design of Concurrent systems (not programs ) one require formal grounding in mathematics and systems theory which u can get only from a formal academic settings.


I got two calls regarding this from people who have read the report about BarCamp in the hindu. news paper. Both the individuals considered the BarCamp event as an assembly of rogue programmers.